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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Above 1M 40.5%
Next is Above 2M at 12%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 1M40.5%40.5%36¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 32s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Above 1M40.5%Kalshi 40.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Above 1M
40.5%
40.5%
36¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Above 1M
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1M
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Above 2M12%12%11¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 32s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Above 2M12%Kalshi 12%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Above 2M
12%
12%
11¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Above 2M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2M
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 3M7%7%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 32s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Above 3M7%Kalshi 7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 3M
7%
7%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 3M
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3M
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 5M6%6%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 5M6%Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 5M
6%
6%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 5M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5M
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $201
Above 6M6%6%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 6M6%Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 6M
6%
6%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 6M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6M
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 8M6%6%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 8M6%Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 8M
6%
6%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 8M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 8M
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $770
Above 4M5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 4M5%Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 4M
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 4M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4M
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 10M5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 10M5%Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 10M
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 10M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 10M
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 12M5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 12M5%Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 12M
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 12M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 12M
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $263
Above 18M5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 18M5%Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 18M
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 18M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 18M
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $584
Show 3 more outcomesHide 3 outcomes
Above 14M4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 32s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 14M4%Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 14M
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 14M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 14M
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 20M4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 32s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 20M4%Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 20M
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 20M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 20M
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $701
Above 16M3%3%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 32s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 16M3%Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 16M
3%
3%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 16M
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 16M
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 1M
- Above 2M
- Above 3M
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "SWALLOW!: First Week Streams". Above 1M leads at 40.5%. Next is Above 2M at 12%. $12K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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