The Prediction Markets

Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026

Closes
May 26, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$33K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 9% 96%

Next is Above 9.5% at 91%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 9%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.5%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.5%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.5%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.5%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$851
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.5%
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.5%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.5%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.5%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.5%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.5%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Above 14.5%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.5%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.5%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.5%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 9%
  • Above 9.5%
  • Above 10%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026". Above 9% leads at 96%. Next is Above 9.5% at 91%. $33K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 26, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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