The Prediction Markets

Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Starts in 3 h 6 minKickoff
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner 74%

Next is Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner at 70.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 22.5
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Game Spread +/-0.5
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 23.5
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 21.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Baez
40.7%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 41%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Baez
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 40¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 41¢.

Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 Winner
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
  • Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner
  • Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard". Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner leads at 74%. Next is Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner at 70.5%. $18K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. This market will resolve to 'Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard' if Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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