The Prediction Markets

Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass?

Closed
Jun 14, 2026
Traded
$106K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Civilian Service Act
69.3%
Polymarket 75.5%(69.3% fair)polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Civilian Service Act
Last price
75.5%
Fair, margin removed
69.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
No to ten million Switzerland
30.7%
Polymarket 33.5%(30.7% fair)polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
No to ten million Switzerland
Last price
33.5%
Fair, margin removed
30.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Civilian Service Act
  • No to ten million Switzerland

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass?". Civilian Service Act last traded at 69.3%. Next is No to ten million Switzerland at 30.7%. $106K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 14, 2026.

As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 : - Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland - Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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