The Prediction Markets

Talen Energy TWh generation in fiscal 2026

Closes
May 2, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 50 TWh 99%

Next is Above 54 TWh at 95.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 50 TWh
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 26s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50 TWh
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 54 TWh
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 54 TWh
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 46 TWh
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 46 TWh
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 47 TWh
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 47 TWh
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 55 TWh
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 55 TWh
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 48 TWh
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 48 TWh
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 49 TWh
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 49 TWh
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 51 TWh
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 51 TWh
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 52 TWh
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 52 TWh
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 53 TWh
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 53 TWh
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 57 TWh
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 57 TWh
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 56 TWh
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56 TWh
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58 TWh
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58 TWh
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$850
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 59 TWh
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 59 TWh
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60 TWh
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60 TWh
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 61 TWh
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 61 TWh
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 62 TWh
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 62 TWh
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 63 TWh
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 63 TWh
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 64 TWh
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 64 TWh
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 65 TWh
39.5%
Kalshi 39.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 65 TWh
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 66 TWh
31.5%
Kalshi 31.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 66 TWh
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 50 TWh
  • Above 54 TWh
  • Above 46 TWh

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Talen Energy TWh generation in fiscal 2026". Above 50 TWh leads at 99%. Next is Above 54 TWh at 95.5%. $8K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 2, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets