The Prediction Markets

Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 36 days
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Chang San-cheng 84%

Next is Huang Shih-chieh at 16%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Chang San-cheng 84%Huang Shih-chieh 16%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Chang San-cheng
84%
Polymarket 84.5%(84% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chang San-cheng
Last price
84.5%
Fair, margin removed
84%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Huang Shih-chieh
16%
Polymarket 16.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 17.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $585 (5.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Huang Shih-chieh
Last price
16.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17.1¢
Sell Yes
15.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$585 (5.85x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Perng Shaw-jiin
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Perng Shaw-jiin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: db.cec.gov.tw

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chang San-cheng
  • Huang Shih-chieh
  • Perng Shaw-jiin

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner". Chang San-cheng leads at 84%. Next is Huang Shih-chieh at 16%. $27K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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