The Prediction Markets

Taraba, Nigeria Governor Election Winner

Closes
Feb 7, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Agbu Kefas 74.7%

Next is Emmanuel Bwacha at 16.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Agbu Kefas 74.7%Emmanuel Bwacha 16.1%Aboki Stephen Bayonga 5%Shiddi Usman Danjuma 4.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Agbu Kefas
74.7%
Polymarket 79.1%(74.7% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 83.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Agbu Kefas
Last price
79.1%
Fair, margin removed
74.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83.4¢
Sell Yes
74.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Emmanuel Bwacha
16.1%
Polymarket 17%(16.1% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emmanuel Bwacha
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
16.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aboki Stephen Bayonga
5%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aboki Stephen Bayonga
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Shiddi Usman Danjuma
4.2%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shiddi Usman Danjuma
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Agbu Kefas
  • Emmanuel Bwacha
  • Aboki Stephen Bayonga

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Taraba, Nigeria Governor Election Winner". Agbu Kefas leads at 74.7%. Next is Emmanuel Bwacha at 16.1%. $8K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2027.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Taraba State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Taraba State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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