The Prediction Markets

Target Q3 comparable sales growth?

Closes
Nov 18, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0% 99%

Next is Above 1% at 94.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 52s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$74
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1%
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1%
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 52s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Volume
$460
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$694
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4%
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4%
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
3% to 5%
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
3% to 5%
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Above 4.5%
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5%
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6%
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.5%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
5%+
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
5%+
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1% to 3%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 24.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $403 (4.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
1% to 3%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
24.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$403 (4.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
1%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0%
  • Above 1%
  • Above 0.5%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Target Q3 comparable sales growth?". Above 0% leads at 99%. Next is Above 1% at 94.5%. $19K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to Target's announced comparable sales growth for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Target's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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