The Prediction Markets

Taylor Swift daily view count hits ___ in October?

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$87K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 4.5M 99%

Next is Above 4M at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 4.5M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.25M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.25M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.1M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.1M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.2M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.2M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.3M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.3M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.4M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.4M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.6M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.6M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 46 more outcomes
Above 13.7M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.7M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.8M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.8M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.9M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.9M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.1M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.1M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.2M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.2M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.3M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.3M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.4M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.4M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.6M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.6M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.7M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.7M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5M
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5M
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.5M
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.5M
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.75M
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.75M
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.8M
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.8M
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12M
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.5M
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.5M
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.9M
87.5%
Kalshi 87.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.9M
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6M
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6M
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.1M
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.1M
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.5M
77.3%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s agoKalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.5M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.2M
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.2M
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13M
73.2%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s agoKalshi 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13M
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$670
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.25M
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.25M
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.75M
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.75M
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.3M
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.3M
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14M
58%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s agoKalshi 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.4M
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.4M
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.5M
51.5%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.5M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.5M
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.5M
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15M
43.5%
Kalshi 83%polled, 20s agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15M
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.6M
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.6M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.7M
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.7M
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$534
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.8M
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.8M
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.75M
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.75M
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.9M
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.9M
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.25M
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.25M
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.5M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16M
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16M
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.5M
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.5M
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8M
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8M
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.25M
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.25M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
25M
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
25M
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7M
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.75M
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.75M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
24M
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
24M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
26M
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
26M
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
27M
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
27M
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: charts.youtube.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.5M
  • Above 4M
  • Above 5M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 4.5M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Taylor Swift daily view count hits ___ in October?". Above 4.5M leads at 99%. Next is Above 4M at 99%. $87K has traded across 56 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift's daily global YouTube view count for any single day in October 2026 is reported at or above the specified number by market expiry. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will consider figures reported for all calendar days within the specified timeframe, including revisions to those figures, until market expiry. This market will expire at the earliest of: (i) the first release of the figure for the final specified calendar day; OR (ii) the seventh day after the final specified calendar day, 11:59 PM ET. Only global view counts will be used. Regional and country-specific figures will not be used. This market will resolve according to the figures attributed to the specified artist by the resolution source, regardless of which channel the views occurred on. If the resolution source attributes views to the specified artist for a video on which the specified artist is a featured or credited contributor, those views will count. The resolution source for this market will be the daily global view counts on Taylor Swift's artist profile published on YouTube Charts (https://charts.youtube.com/artist/%2Fm%2F0dl567).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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