The Prediction Markets

Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$2.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Dior 66%

Next is December 31, 2026 at 8.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dior
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dior
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2026
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Armani Privé
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Armani Privé
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Balmain
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balmain
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Berta
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Berta
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elie Saab
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elie Saab
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fendi
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fendi
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Georges Hobeika
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Georges Hobeika
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vera Wang
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vera Wang
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vivienne Westwood
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vivienne Westwood
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 21 more outcomes
Dolce & Gabbana
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dolce & Gabbana
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ines Di Santo
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ines Di Santo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Monse
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Monse
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oscar de la Renta
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oscar de la Renta
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zuhair Murad
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zuhair Murad
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Galia Lahav
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Galia Lahav
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Monique Lhuillier
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Monique Lhuillier
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Ford
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Ford
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexander McQueen
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander McQueen
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gucci
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gucci
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mira Zwillinger
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mira Zwillinger
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Naeem Khan
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Naeem Khan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pronovias
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pronovias
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reem Acra
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reem Acra
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Schiaparelli
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schiaparelli
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Carolina Herrera
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carolina Herrera
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chanel
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chanel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Givenchy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Givenchy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Louis Vuitton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louis Vuitton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ralph Lauren
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ralph Lauren
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Valentino
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Valentino
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Taylor Swift, Vogue, Harper's Bazaar

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dior
  • December 31, 2026
  • Armani Privé

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Dior for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?". Dior leads at 66%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 8.5%. $2.5M has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice. The resolution source will be statements from Taylor Swift or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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