The Prediction Markets

TBPN: Guests this year

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
6 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Sam Altman 97%

Next is Marc Andreessen at 39%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Sam Altman
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 6 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marc Andreessen
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marc Andreessen
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Cuban
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Cuban
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Satya Nadella
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Satya Nadella
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Zuckerberg
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Zuckerberg
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamie Dimon
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamie Dimon
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Dario Amodei
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dario Amodei
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: TBPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sam Altman
  • Marc Andreessen
  • Mark Cuban

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "TBPN: Guests this year". Sam Altman leads at 97%. Next is Marc Andreessen at 39%. $3K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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