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What the markets expect
Hagerty, 4+ pts 94.8%
Next is Hagerty, 6+ pts at 94.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Hagerty, 4+ pts94.8%Not listed94.8%93.3¢ bid, 96.3¢ askpolled, 40s ago96.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Hagerty, 4+ pts94.8%Kalshi 94.8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 4+ pts
94.8%
Not listed
94.8%
93.3¢ bid, 96.3¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
96.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 4+ pts
94.8%
Kalshi 94.8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 4+ pts
- Last price
- 94.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 93.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 6+ pts94.5%Not listed94.5%92.6¢ bid, 96.3¢ askpolled, 40s ago96.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Hagerty, 6+ pts94.5%Kalshi 94.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 6+ pts
94.5%
Not listed
94.5%
92.6¢ bid, 96.3¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
96.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 6+ pts
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 6+ pts
- Last price
- 94.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 92.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 8+ pts92%Not listed92%92¢ bid, 96.3¢ askpolled, 40s ago96.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Hagerty, 8+ pts92%Kalshi 92%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 8+ pts
92%
Not listed
92%
92¢ bid, 96.3¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
96.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 8+ pts
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 8+ pts
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $408
Hagerty, 10+ pts91.2%Not listed91.2%90¢ bid, 96.3¢ askpolled, 40s ago96.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Hagerty, 10+ pts91.2%Kalshi 91.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 10+ pts
91.2%
Not listed
91.2%
90¢ bid, 96.3¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
96.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 10+ pts
91.2%
Kalshi 91.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 10+ pts
- Last price
- 91.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $210
Hagerty, 12+ pts89%Not listed89%86¢ bid, 96.3¢ askpolled, 40s ago96.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Hagerty, 12+ pts89%Kalshi 89%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 12+ pts
89%
Not listed
89%
86¢ bid, 96.3¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
96.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Hagerty, 12+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 12+ pts
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $10
Hagerty, 14+ pts85%Not listed85%77¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 40s ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Hagerty, 14+ pts85%Kalshi 85%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Hagerty, 14+ pts
85%
Not listed
85%
77¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Hagerty, 14+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 14+ pts
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $924
Hagerty, 16+ pts76%Not listed76%67¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 40s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Hagerty, 16+ pts76%Kalshi 76%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Hagerty, 16+ pts
76%
Not listed
76%
67¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Hagerty, 16+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 16+ pts
- Last price
- 76%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 67¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $1K
Hagerty, 18+ pts65%Not listed65%61¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 40s ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Hagerty, 18+ pts65%Kalshi 65%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Hagerty, 18+ pts
65%
Not listed
65%
61¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Hagerty, 18+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 18+ pts
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $416
Hagerty, 20+ pts63%Not listed63%51¢ bid, 63¢ askpolled, 40s ago63¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $159 (1.59x)Hagerty, 20+ pts63%Kalshi 63%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Hagerty, 20+ pts
63%
Not listed
63%
51¢ bid, 63¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
63¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Hagerty, 20+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 20+ pts
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 63¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $159 (1.59x)
- Volume
- $1K
Hagerty, 22+ pts52%Not listed52%41¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 40s ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)Hagerty, 22+ pts52%Kalshi 52%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Hagerty, 22+ pts
52%
Not listed
52%
41¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Hagerty, 22+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 22+ pts
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $583
Show 17 more outcomesHide 17 outcomes
Hagerty, 24+ pts42%Not listed42%30¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 40s ago42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)Hagerty, 24+ pts42%Kalshi 42%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Hagerty, 24+ pts
42%
Not listed
42%
30¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Hagerty, 24+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 24+ pts
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
- Volume
- $1K
Hagerty, 26+ pts33%Not listed33%21¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 40s ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Hagerty, 26+ pts33%Kalshi 33%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Hagerty, 26+ pts
33%
Not listed
33%
21¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Hagerty, 26+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 26+ pts
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $152
Republican 20-25%30%30%29¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Republican 20-25%30%Polymarket 30%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Republican 20-25%
30%
30%
29¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Republican 20-25%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 20-25%
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $3K
Republican 15-20%27.5%27.5%26¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Republican 15-20%27.5%Polymarket 27.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Republican 15-20%
27.5%
27.5%
26¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Republican 15-20%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 15-20%
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $3K
Hagerty, 28+ pts16%Not listed16%13¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 40s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Hagerty, 28+ pts16%Kalshi 16%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Hagerty, 28+ pts
16%
Not listed
16%
13¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Hagerty, 28+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 28+ pts
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $556
Republican 10-15%15%15%12¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Republican 10-15%15%Polymarket 15%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Republican 10-15%
15%
15%
12¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Republican 10-15%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 10-15%
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $1K
Hagerty, 30+ pts8.4%Not listed8.4%6¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 40s ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Hagerty, 30+ pts8.4%Kalshi 8.4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Hagerty, 30+ pts
8.4%
Not listed
8.4%
6¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Hagerty, 30+ pts
8.4%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 30+ pts
- Last price
- 8.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $7
Republican 25-30%8%8%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Republican 25-30%8%Polymarket 8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Republican 25-30%
8%
8%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Republican 25-30%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 25-30%
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $1K
Republican 30-35%7.5%7.5%5.8¢ bid, 9.1¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed9.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)Republican 30-35%7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Republican 30-35%
7.5%
7.5%
5.8¢ bid, 9.1¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
9.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Republican 30-35%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 30-35%
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,099 (11.0x)
- Volume
- $575
Hagerty, 32+ pts6.5%Not listed6.5%0.9¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 40s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Hagerty, 32+ pts6.5%Kalshi 6.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Hagerty, 32+ pts
6.5%
Not listed
6.5%
0.9¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Hagerty, 32+ pts
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 32+ pts
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Democrat Wins4.9%4.9%4.8¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Democrat Wins4.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Democrat Wins
4.9%
4.9%
4.8¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Democrat Wins
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat Wins
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $1K
Hagerty, 34+ pts4.8%Not listed4.8%— bid, 9.6¢ askpolled, 40s ago9.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)Hagerty, 34+ pts4.8%Kalshi 4.8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Hagerty, 34+ pts
4.8%
Not listed
4.8%
— bid, 9.6¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
9.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Hagerty, 34+ pts
4.8%
Kalshi 4.8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 34+ pts
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,042 (10.4x)
Republican 35-40%4.5%4.5%2.5¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed6.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)Republican 35-40%4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Republican 35-40%
4.5%
4.5%
2.5¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
6.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Republican 35-40%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 35-40%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $247
Republican 45%+4.4%4.4%1.1¢ bid, 7.7¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed7.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)Republican 45%+4.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Republican 45%+
4.4%
4.4%
1.1¢ bid, 7.7¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
7.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Republican 45%+
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 45%+
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,299 (13.0x)
- Volume
- $250
Hagerty, 36+ pts3.8%Not listed3.8%— bid, 7.6¢ askpolled, 40s ago7.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)Hagerty, 36+ pts3.8%Kalshi 3.8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Hagerty, 36+ pts
3.8%
Not listed
3.8%
— bid, 7.6¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
7.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Hagerty, 36+ pts
3.8%
Kalshi 3.8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagerty, 36+ pts
- Last price
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,316 (13.2x)
Republican 0-10%3.2%3.2%0.9¢ bid, 5.4¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Republican 0-10%3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Republican 0-10%
3.2%
3.2%
0.9¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Republican 0-10%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 0-10%
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $140
Republican 40-45%1.7%1.7%0.4¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 40s agoNot listed2.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)Republican 40-45%1.7%Polymarket 1.7%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Republican 40-45%
1.7%
1.7%
0.4¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
Not listed
2.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Republican 40-45%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 40-45%
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $266
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tennessee Secretary of State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Hagerty, 4+ pts
- Hagerty, 6+ pts
- Hagerty, 8+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Hagerty, 4+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Tennessee Senate margin of victory". Hagerty, 4+ pts leads at 94.8%. Next is Hagerty, 6+ pts at 94.5%. $18K has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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