The Prediction Markets

Tennessee's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Burchett, 15+ pts 92.4%

Next is Burchett, 18+ pts at 81%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Burchett, 15+ pts
92.4%
Kalshi 92.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burchett, 15+ pts
Last price
92.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Burchett, 18+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burchett, 18+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91.4¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Burchett, 21+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burchett, 21+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$529
Trade this on Kalshi
Burchett, 24+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burchett, 24+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Burchett, 27+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burchett, 27+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Burchett, 30+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burchett, 30+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$435
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Burchett, 33+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burchett, 33+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 15-20%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Burchett, 36+ pts
8.2%
Kalshi 8.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burchett, 36+ pts
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 40%+
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Burchett, 39+ pts
6.3%
Kalshi 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burchett, 39+ pts
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$670
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$485
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tennessee Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Burchett, 15+ pts
  • Burchett, 18+ pts
  • Burchett, 21+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Burchett, 15+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tennessee's 2nd District margin of victory". Burchett, 15+ pts leads at 92.4%. Next is Burchett, 18+ pts at 81%. $16K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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