The Prediction Markets

Tennessee's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

DesJarlais, 6+ pts 94%

Next is DesJarlais, 9+ pts at 89.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
DesJarlais, 6+ pts
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 6+ pts
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 9+ pts
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 9+ pts
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 12+ pts
79.5%
Kalshi 79.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 12+ pts
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 15+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 15+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 18+ pts
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 18+ pts
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
48.7%
Polymarket 48.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
48.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93.1¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
47.6%
Polymarket 47.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
47.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
47.4%
Polymarket 47.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
47.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91.9¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
44.9%
Polymarket 44.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
44.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 14 more outcomes
Republican 15-20%
44.4%
Polymarket 44.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $113 (1.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
44.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$113 (1.13x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
44.3%
Polymarket 44.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $113 (1.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
44.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$113 (1.13x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
42.3%
Polymarket 42.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
42.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Polymarket
DesJarlais, 21+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 21+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 24+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 24+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 27+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 27+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 30+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 30+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 33+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 33+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 48+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 48+ pts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 36+ pts
3.7%
Kalshi 3.7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 36+ pts
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 39+ pts
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 39+ pts
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 42+ pts
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 42+ pts
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DesJarlais, 45+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
DesJarlais, 45+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • DesJarlais, 6+ pts
  • DesJarlais, 9+ pts
  • DesJarlais, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list DesJarlais, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tennessee's 4th District margin of victory". DesJarlais, 6+ pts leads at 94%. Next is DesJarlais, 9+ pts at 89.5%. $12K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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