The Prediction Markets

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.6M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

December 31, 2027 67%

Next is June 30, 2027 at 56%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31, 2027
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30, 2027
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Polymarket
February 28, 2027
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
February 28, 2027
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
January 31, 2027
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
January 31, 2027
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$317K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2027
  • June 30, 2027
  • February 28, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?". December 31, 2027 leads at 67%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 56%. $1.6M has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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