The Prediction Markets

Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027

Closes
Jul 31, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 225000 97.5%

Next is Above 250000 at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 225000
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 35s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 225000
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 35s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250000
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 275000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 35s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 275000
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300,000
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300,000
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 325,000
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 35s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 325,000
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Volume
$595
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 375,000
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 375,000
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350,000
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350,000
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 400,000
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 400,000
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 425,000
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 425,000
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 475,000
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 475,000
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Above 450,000
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 450,000
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 500,000
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500,000
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 525,000
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 525,000
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 550,000
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 550,000
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 575,000
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 575,000
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 225000
  • Above 250000
  • Above 275000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027". Above 225000 leads at 97.5%. Next is Above 250000 at 97%. $23K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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