The Prediction Markets

Tesla energy deployment in Q1 2027

Closes
Jul 31, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 8 GWh 98%

Next is Above 10 GWh at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 8 GWh
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8 GWh
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10 GWh
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10 GWh
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12 GWh
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12 GWh
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14 GWh
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14 GWh
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16 GWh
27.5%
Kalshi 27.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16 GWh
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18 GWh
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18 GWh
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20 GWh
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20 GWh
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 22 GWh
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 22 GWh
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 26 GWh
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 26 GWh
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 24 GWh
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 24 GWh
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$852
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30 GWh
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30 GWh
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 28 GWh
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 28 GWh
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 8 GWh
  • Above 10 GWh
  • Above 12 GWh

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tesla energy deployment in Q1 2027". Above 8 GWh leads at 98%. Next is Above 10 GWh at 86%. $2K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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