The Prediction Markets

Tesla total deliveries in 2026

Closes
Mar 31, 2028, in 17 months
Traded
$70K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.6 million 99%

Next is Above 1.55 million at 96%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.6 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.6 million
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.55 million
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.55 million
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5 million
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5 million
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.7 million
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.7 million
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.65 million
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.65 million
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.75 million
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75 million
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.8 million
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.8 million
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
475k to 500k
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
475k to 500k
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.85 million
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.85 million
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
400k to 425k
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
400k to 425k
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$590
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
500k to 525k
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
500k to 525k
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Polymarket
525k to 550k
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
525k to 550k
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
12.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Polymarket
575k+
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
575k+
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
450k to 475k
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
450k to 475k
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.9 million
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.9 million
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
400k
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
400k
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$731
Trade this on Polymarket
425k to 450k
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
425k to 450k
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Polymarket
550k to 575k
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
550k to 575k
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ir.tesla.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.6 million
  • Above 1.55 million
  • Above 1.5 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.6 million for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tesla total deliveries in 2026". Above 1.6 million leads at 99%. Next is Above 1.55 million at 96%. $70K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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