The Prediction Markets

Tesla total production in 2026

Closes
Mar 31, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.5 million 99%

Next is Above 1.55 million at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.5 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5 million
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.55 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.55 million
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.6 million
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.6 million
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.65 million
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.65 million
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.7 million
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.7 million
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.8 million
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.8 million
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.75 million
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75 million
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.85 million
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.85 million
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.9 million
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.9 million
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.5 million
  • Above 1.55 million
  • Above 1.6 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tesla total production in 2026". Above 1.5 million leads at 99%. Next is Above 1.55 million at 99%. $13K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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