The Prediction Markets

Texas Governor election: Gina Hinojosa vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 36% 99%

Next is At least 38% at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 36%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 36%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$82
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 38%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 38%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$82
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 42%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 42%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
90¢
Volume
$364
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 44%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 44%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 46%
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 46%
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 47%
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 47%
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$419
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 48%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 48%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 54%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Austin, TX

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 36%
  • At least 38%
  • At least 40%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas Governor election: Gina Hinojosa vote percent". At least 36% leads at 99%. Next is At least 38% at 99%. $4K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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