The Prediction Markets

Texas Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$62K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Dan Patrick (R) 66.5%

Next is Vikki Goodwin (D) at 33.5%. The venues differ most on Vikki Goodwin (D) (Polymarket 32%, Kalshi 35%), a 3.0-point gap.

Dan Patrick (R) 66.5%Vikki Goodwin (D) 33.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dan Patrick (R)
66.5%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 67%(65.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dan Patrick (R)
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Patrick
Last price
67%
Fair, margin removed
65.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 67¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 68¢.

Vikki Goodwin (D)
33.5%
Polymarket 32%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 35%(34.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vikki Goodwin (D)
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vikki Goodwin
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
34.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 33¢ and selling on Kalshi at 34¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Indicative gap, prices are 5 min old: Vikki Goodwin (D) asks 33¢ on Polymarket and bids 34¢ on Kalshi (100 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the State of Texas
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dan Patrick (R)
  • Vikki Goodwin (D)

Live prices for Dan Patrick (R)

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas Lieutenant Governor Election Winner". Dan Patrick (R) leads at 66.5%. Next is Vikki Goodwin (D) at 33.5%. $62K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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