The Prediction Markets

Texas Railroad Commissioner & Senate combo

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$32K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Jon Rosenthal & James Talarico 47.8%

Next is Bo French & Ken Paxton at 27.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Jon Rosenthal & James Talarico 47.8%Bo French & Ken Paxton 27.4%Bo French & James Talarico 19.5%Jon Rosenthal & Ken Paxton 5.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Jon Rosenthal & James Talarico
47.8%
Kalshi 54%(47.8% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Rosenthal & James Talarico
Last price
54%
Fair, margin removed
47.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bo French & Ken Paxton
27.4%
Kalshi 31%(27.4% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bo French & Ken Paxton
Last price
31%
Fair, margin removed
27.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bo French & James Talarico
19.5%
Kalshi 22%(19.5% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bo French & James Talarico
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Rosenthal & Ken Paxton
5.3%
Kalshi 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Rosenthal & Ken Paxton
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jon Rosenthal & James Talarico
  • Bo French & Ken Paxton
  • Bo French & James Talarico

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas Railroad Commissioner & Senate combo". Jon Rosenthal & James Talarico leads at 47.8%. Next is Bo French & Ken Paxton at 27.4%. $32K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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