The Prediction Markets

Texas Republican Senate runoff: who endorses who?

Closed
May 26, 2026
Traded
$196K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 26, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Donald Trump → No one
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump → No one
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Trump → Ken Paxton
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump → Ken Paxton
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Trump → John Cornyn
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump → John Cornyn
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$85K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wesley Hunt → John Cornyn
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wesley Hunt → John Cornyn
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Trump → John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump → John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Greg Abbott → John Cornyn
3.3%
Kalshi 3.3%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greg Abbott → John Cornyn
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wesley Hunt → Ken Paxton
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wesley Hunt → Ken Paxton
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Greg Abbott → Ken Paxton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greg Abbott → Ken Paxton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$970
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Donald Trump → No one
  • Donald Trump → Ken Paxton
  • Donald Trump → John Cornyn

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Texas Republican Senate runoff: who endorses who?". Donald Trump → No one last traded at 63%. Next is Donald Trump → Ken Paxton at 29%. $196K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on May 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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