The Prediction Markets

Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$60K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 8.20M 98%

Next is Above 8.80M at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 8.20M
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.20M
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.80M
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.80M
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.40M
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.40M
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.00M
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.00M
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.30M
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.30M
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$780
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.60M
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.60M
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.20M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.20M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
11.2M+
29.3%
Polymarket 29.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
11.2M+
Last price
29.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
27.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
9.6M-10M
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
9.6M-10M
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
10M-10.4M
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
10M-10.4M
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 11.80M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.80M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
10.8M-11.2M
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 19.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $508 (5.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.8M-11.2M
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
19.7¢
Sell Yes
7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$508 (5.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
10.4M-10.8M
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.4M-10.8M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 12.40M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.40M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.90M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.90M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.50M
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.50M
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
9.2M-9.6M
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
9.2M-9.6M
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
8.4M-8.8M
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
8.4M-8.8M
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Polymarket
8M
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
8M
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
8.8M-9.2M
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
8.8M-9.2M
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
8M-8.4M
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
8M-8.4M
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 8.20M
  • Above 8.80M
  • Above 9.40M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 8.20M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout". Above 8.20M leads at 98%. Next is Above 8.80M at 83%. $60K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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