The Prediction Markets

Texas Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1.9M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

James Talarico, 1+ pts 62%

Next is James Talarico, 2+ pts at 56%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

9 of 23 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
James Talarico, 1+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%live, 4 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 1+ pts
Price
62%
As of
Live feed, 4 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$151K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 2+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%live, 4 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 2+ pts
Price
56%
As of
Live feed, 4 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 3+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%live, 4 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 3+ pts
Price
40%
As of
Live feed, 4 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$288K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 0-3%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 0-3%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico, 4+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%live, 4 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 4+ pts
Price
32%
As of
Live feed, 4 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%live, 4 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
Price
30%
As of
Live feed, 4 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$199K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paxton 0-3%
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 0-3%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico, 5+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%live, 4 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 5+ pts
Price
22%
As of
Live feed, 4 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$147K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%live, 4 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
Price
21%
As of
Live feed, 4 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$304K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 3-6%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 3-6%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 13 more outcomes
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%live, 4 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
Price
13%
As of
Live feed, 4 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$207K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 7+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%live, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 7+ pts
Price
10%
As of
Live feed, 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$204K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 6-9%
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 6-9%
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paxton 3-6%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 3-6%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$112K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 9-12%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 9-12%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3.6%
Kalshi 3.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paxton 9-12%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 9-12%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paxton 6-9%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 6-9%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paxton 12%+
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 12%+
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Talarico 12%+
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 12%+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in, official election authority responsible for certifying results in Texas

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • James Talarico, 1+ pts
  • James Talarico, 2+ pts
  • James Talarico, 3+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list James Talarico, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas Senate margin of victory". James Talarico, 1+ pts leads at 62%. Next is James Talarico, 2+ pts at 56%. $1.9M has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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