The Prediction Markets

Texas Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

James Talarico, 1+ pts 64%

Next is James Talarico, 2+ pts at 52%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

8 of 30 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
James Talarico, 1+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%live, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 1+ pts
Price
64%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$155K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 2+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%live, just nowBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 2+ pts
Price
52%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 3+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%live, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 3+ pts
Price
42%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$298K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 0-3%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 0-3%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$202K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 4+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%live, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 4+ pts
Price
31%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Paxton 0-3%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 0-3%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%live, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
Price
21%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$324K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 5+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%live, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 5+ pts
Price
20%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$150K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 20 more outcomes
Talarico 3-6%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 3-6%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico, 6+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 6+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%live, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
Price
13%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$219K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
10.3%
Kalshi 10.3%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
Last price
10.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 7+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 7+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$206K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 8+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 8+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%live, just nowBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
Price
8.6%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$122K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 6-9%
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 6-9%
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
7.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paxton 3-6%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 3-6%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 9+ pts
5.7%
Kalshi 5.7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 9+ pts
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Paxton 6-9%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 6-9%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Talarico 9-12%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 9-12%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
3.6%
Kalshi 3.6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paxton 9-12%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 9-12%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Talarico 12%+
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 12%+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paxton 12%+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 12%+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State, official election authority responsible for certifying results in Texas

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • James Talarico, 1+ pts
  • James Talarico, 2+ pts
  • James Talarico, 3+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list James Talarico, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas Senate margin of victory". James Talarico, 1+ pts leads at 64%. Next is James Talarico, 2+ pts at 52%. $2.0M has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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