The Prediction Markets

Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$37K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Fort Bend 92%

Next is Tarrant at 87%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Fort Bend
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fort Bend
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tarrant
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tarrant
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Collin
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, just nowBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Collin
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Denton
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denton
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bell
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bell
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bastrop
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bastrop
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brazoria
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brazoria
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fort Bend
  • Tarrant
  • Collin

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?". Fort Bend leads at 92%. Next is Tarrant at 87%. $37K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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