The Prediction Markets

Texas's 13th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Jackson, 26+ pts 95.3%

Next is Jackson, 29+ pts at 92.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Jackson, 26+ pts
95.3%
Kalshi 95.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 26+ pts
Last price
95.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
90.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 29+ pts
92.9%
Kalshi 92.9%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 29+ pts
Last price
92.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 32+ pts
84.7%
Kalshi 84.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 90.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 32+ pts
Last price
84.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90.3¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 35+ pts
70.5%
Kalshi 70.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 35+ pts
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 38+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 38+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 41+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 41+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jackson, 44+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 44+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 47+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 47+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 30-35%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
8.7%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $599 (5.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$599 (5.99x)
Volume
$622
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-25%
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-25%
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 55%+
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 55%+
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$478
Trade this on Polymarket
Jackson, 50+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 50+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 45-50%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$754
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-15%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-15%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50-55%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50-55%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$653
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jackson, 26+ pts
  • Jackson, 29+ pts
  • Jackson, 32+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Jackson, 26+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 13th District margin of victory". Jackson, 26+ pts leads at 95.3%. Next is Jackson, 29+ pts at 92.9%. $18K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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