The Prediction Markets

Texas's 22nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Nehls, 3+ pts 91%

Next is Nehls, 6+ pts at 80%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Nehls, 3+ pts
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nehls, 3+ pts
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nehls, 6+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nehls, 6+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Nehls, 9+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nehls, 9+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Nehls, 12+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nehls, 12+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Nehls, 15+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nehls, 15+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nehls, 18+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nehls, 18+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nehls, 21+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nehls, 21+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 20-25%
16.8%
Polymarket 16.8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 19.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $521 (5.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
16.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.2¢
Sell Yes
14.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$521 (5.21x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nehls, 24+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nehls, 24+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Nehls, 27+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nehls, 27+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$644
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$598
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nehls, 3+ pts
  • Nehls, 6+ pts
  • Nehls, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Nehls, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 22nd District margin of victory". Nehls, 3+ pts leads at 91%. Next is Nehls, 6+ pts at 80%. $19K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets