The Prediction Markets

Texas's 24th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Duyne, 1+ pts 86%

Next is Duyne, 3+ pts at 80%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Duyne, 1+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duyne, 1+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Duyne, 3+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duyne, 3+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Duyne, 6+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duyne, 6+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
Duyne, 9+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duyne, 9+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Kalshi
Duyne, 12+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duyne, 12+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$745
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Duyne, 15+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duyne, 15+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$669
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
18.2%
Polymarket 18.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 19.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $518 (5.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
18.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.3¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$518 (5.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Duyne, 18+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duyne, 18+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 0-3%
15.3%
Polymarket 15.3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 28.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $348 (3.48x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
15.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28.7¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$348 (3.48x)
Volume
$599
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 21%+
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 21%+
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Duyne, 21+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duyne, 21+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$674
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 12-15%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Duyne, 24+ pts
7.7%
Kalshi 7.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duyne, 24+ pts
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$555
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$814
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18-21%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18-21%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3%+
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3%+
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Duyne, 1+ pts
  • Duyne, 3+ pts
  • Duyne, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Duyne, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 24th District margin of victory". Duyne, 1+ pts leads at 86%. Next is Duyne, 3+ pts at 80%. $23K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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