The Prediction Markets

Texas's 25th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Williams, 6+ pts 87%

Next is Williams, 9+ pts at 85.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Williams, 6+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 6+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 9+ pts
85.6%
Kalshi 85.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 9+ pts
Last price
85.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91.2¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 12+ pts
74.5%
Kalshi 74.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 12+ pts
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 15+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 15+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Williams, 18+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 18+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Williams, 21+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 21+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$458
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 24+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 24+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Williams, 27+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 27+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Williams, 30+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 30+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$392
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Williams, 6+ pts
  • Williams, 9+ pts
  • Williams, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Williams, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 25th District margin of victory". Williams, 6+ pts leads at 87%. Next is Williams, 9+ pts at 85.6%. $18K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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