The Prediction Markets

Texas's 27th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$37K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Cloud, 6+ pts 77%

Next is Cloud, 9+ pts at 62%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cloud, 6+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud, 6+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Cloud, 9+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud, 9+ pts
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Cloud, 12+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud, 12+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
Cloud, 27+ pts
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud, 27+ pts
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cloud, 18+ pts
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud, 18+ pts
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
47.6%
Polymarket 47.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 92.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
47.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
92.6¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Polymarket
Cloud, 15+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud, 15+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Cloud, 3+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud, 3+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Cloud, 21+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud, 21+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Cloud, 24+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud, 24+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cloud, 6+ pts
  • Cloud, 9+ pts
  • Cloud, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cloud, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 27th District margin of victory". Cloud, 6+ pts leads at 77%. Next is Cloud, 9+ pts at 62%. $37K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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