The Prediction Markets

Texas's 28th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$48K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Cuellar, 2+ pts 88%

Next is Cuellar, 5+ pts at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cuellar, 2+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 92.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuellar, 2+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.3¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$981
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuellar, 5+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuellar, 5+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuellar, 8+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuellar, 8+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuellar, 11+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuellar, 11+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuellar, 14+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuellar, 14+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuellar, 17+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuellar, 17+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cuellar, 20+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuellar, 20+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6-9%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12-15%
13.6%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12-15%
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
12.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 21%+
12.6%
Polymarket 12.6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 21%+
Last price
12.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-18%
10.8%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-18%
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 18-21%
8.6%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 18-21%
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tijerina, 1+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tijerina, 1+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuellar, 23+ pts
7.1%
Kalshi 7.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuellar, 23+ pts
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3%+
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3%+
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cuellar, 2+ pts
  • Cuellar, 5+ pts
  • Cuellar, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cuellar, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 28th District margin of victory". Cuellar, 2+ pts leads at 88%. Next is Cuellar, 5+ pts at 82%. $48K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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