The Prediction Markets

Texas's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Toth, 2+ pts 84.6%

Next is Toth, 5+ pts at 69%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Toth, 2+ pts
84.6%
Kalshi 84.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toth, 2+ pts
Last price
84.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90.1¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Toth, 5+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toth, 5+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Toth, 8+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toth, 8+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Toth, 11+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toth, 11+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Toth, 14+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toth, 14+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Toth, 17+ pts
21.5%
Kalshi 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toth, 17+ pts
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Toth, 20+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toth, 20+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$842
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$634
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Toth, 23+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toth, 23+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.2¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$704 (7.04x)
Volume
$662
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
7.4%
Polymarket 7.4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
7.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Polymarket
Toth, 26+ pts
4.7%
Kalshi 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toth, 26+ pts
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$456
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Toth, 2+ pts
  • Toth, 5+ pts
  • Toth, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Toth, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 2nd District margin of victory". Toth, 2+ pts leads at 84.6%. Next is Toth, 5+ pts at 69%. $17K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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