The Prediction Markets

Texas's 30th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Haynes, 40+ pts 91.9%

Next is Haynes, 43+ pts at 88%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Haynes, 40+ pts
91.9%
Kalshi 91.9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 40+ pts
Last price
91.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Kalshi
Haynes, 43+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 93.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 43+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.9¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Haynes, 46+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 46+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Haynes, 49+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 49+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Haynes, 52+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 52+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Haynes, 55+ pts
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 55+ pts
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Haynes, 58+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 58+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Haynes, 61+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 61+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Haynes, 64+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 64+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Democrat 60-65%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Haynes, 67+ pts
11.8%
Kalshi 11.8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haynes, 67+ pts
Last price
11.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 55-60%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $602 (6.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$602 (6.02x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 70%+
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70%+
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 65-70%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$867
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-30%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-30%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-40%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-40%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Haynes, 40+ pts
  • Haynes, 43+ pts
  • Haynes, 46+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Haynes, 40+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 30th District margin of victory". Haynes, 40+ pts leads at 91.9%. Next is Haynes, 43+ pts at 88%. $28K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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