The Prediction Markets

Texas's 34th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Gonzalez, 1+ pts 75%

Next is Gonzalez, 4+ pts at 70%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gonzalez, 1+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gonzalez, 1+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$458
Trade this on Kalshi
Gonzalez, 4+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gonzalez, 4+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gonzalez, 7+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gonzalez, 7+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
Gonzalez, 10+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gonzalez, 10+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12%+
25.2%
Polymarket 25.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $379 (3.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
25.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26.4¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$379 (3.79x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gonzalez, 13+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gonzalez, 13+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Flores, 2+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flores, 2+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 0-3%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$744
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $552 (5.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.1¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$552 (5.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Flores, 5+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flores, 5+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$422
Trade this on Kalshi
Gonzalez, 19+ pts
7.7%
Kalshi 7.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gonzalez, 19+ pts
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Gonzalez, 16+ pts
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gonzalez, 16+ pts
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12%+
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$718
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$354
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gonzalez, 1+ pts
  • Gonzalez, 4+ pts
  • Gonzalez, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Gonzalez, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 34th District margin of victory". Gonzalez, 1+ pts leads at 75%. Next is Gonzalez, 4+ pts at 70%. $20K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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