The Prediction Markets

Texas's 35th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Garcia, 2+ pts 56%

Next is Garcia, 5+ pts at 41%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Garcia, 2+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garcia, 2+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$774
Trade this on Kalshi
Garcia, 5+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garcia, 5+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Kalshi
Garcia, 8+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garcia, 8+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cruz, 1+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cruz, 1+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
18.1%
Polymarket 18.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
18.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
17.8%
Polymarket 17.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
17.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$369
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$731
Trade this on Polymarket
Cruz, 4+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cruz, 4+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$723
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Garcia, 11+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garcia, 11+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
12.3%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $870 (8.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.5¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$870 (8.70x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Polymarket
Cruz, 7+ pts
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cruz, 7+ pts
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cruz, 10+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cruz, 10+ pts
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 9-12%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Polymarket
Cruz, 13+ pts
3.6%
Kalshi 3.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cruz, 13+ pts
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12%+
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Garcia, 2+ pts
  • Garcia, 5+ pts
  • Garcia, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Garcia, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 35th District margin of victory". Garcia, 2+ pts leads at 56%. Next is Garcia, 5+ pts at 41%. $21K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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