The Prediction Markets

Texas's 36th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Babin, 6+ pts 87%

Next is Babin, 9+ pts at 85.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Babin, 6+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 97.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babin, 6+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.4¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Babin, 9+ pts
85.8%
Kalshi 85.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 91.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babin, 9+ pts
Last price
85.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.6¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Babin, 12+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babin, 12+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Babin, 15+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babin, 15+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Babin, 18+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babin, 18+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Kalshi
Babin, 21+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babin, 21+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi
Babin, 24+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babin, 24+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Republican 5-10%
16.3%
Polymarket 16.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 19.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $521 (5.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
16.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.2¢
Sell Yes
13.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$521 (5.21x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Babin, 27+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babin, 27+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$704 (7.04x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
7.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Polymarket
Babin, 30+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babin, 30+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30%+
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Babin, 6+ pts
  • Babin, 9+ pts
  • Babin, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Babin, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 36th District margin of victory". Babin, 6+ pts leads at 87%. Next is Babin, 9+ pts at 85.8%. $21K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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