The Prediction Markets

Texas's 37th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Casar, 49+ pts 94.1%

Next is Casar, 52+ pts at 86.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Casar, 49+ pts
94.1%
Kalshi 94.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casar, 49+ pts
Last price
94.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.1¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Casar, 52+ pts
86.8%
Kalshi 86.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casar, 52+ pts
Last price
86.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92.6¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Casar, 55+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casar, 55+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Casar, 58+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casar, 58+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Casar, 61+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casar, 61+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Casar, 64+ pts
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casar, 64+ pts
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Casar, 67+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casar, 67+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 70-75%
34.9%
Polymarket 34.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $186 (1.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
34.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53.7¢
Sell Yes
16.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$186 (1.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50-55%
24.9%
Polymarket 24.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $264 (2.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
24.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37.9¢
Sell Yes
11.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$264 (2.64x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Casar, 70+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casar, 70+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 60-65%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 65-70%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Casar, 73+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casar, 73+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 55-60%
11.4%
Polymarket 11.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $481 (4.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.8¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$481 (4.81x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 75%+
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75%+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$529
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-45%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-45%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-35%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-35%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$876
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Casar, 49+ pts
  • Casar, 52+ pts
  • Casar, 55+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Casar, 49+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 37th District margin of victory". Casar, 49+ pts leads at 94.1%. Next is Casar, 52+ pts at 86.8%. $21K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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