The Prediction Markets

Texas's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Fallon, 8+ pts 90%

Next is Fallon, 11+ pts at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fallon, 8+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fallon, 8+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Fallon, 11+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fallon, 11+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94.7¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Kalshi
Fallon, 14+ pts
77.5%
Kalshi 77.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fallon, 14+ pts
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fallon, 17+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fallon, 17+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Fallon, 20+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fallon, 20+ pts
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Fallon, 23+ pts
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fallon, 23+ pts
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
17.8%
Polymarket 17.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $467 (4.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
17.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21.4¢
Sell Yes
14.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$467 (4.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fallon, 26+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fallon, 26+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 5-10%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $746 (7.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13.4¢
Sell Yes
12.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$746 (7.46x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $595 (5.95x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$595 (5.95x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Polymarket
Fallon, 29+ pts
7.8%
Kalshi 7.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fallon, 29+ pts
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fallon, 32+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fallon, 32+ pts
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35%+
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$597
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$540
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fallon, 8+ pts
  • Fallon, 11+ pts
  • Fallon, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Fallon, 8+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 4th District margin of victory". Fallon, 8+ pts leads at 90%. Next is Fallon, 11+ pts at 85%. $23K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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