The Prediction Markets

Texas's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Gooden, 2+ pts 94.6%

Next is Gooden, 5+ pts at 86%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gooden, 2+ pts
94.6%
Kalshi 94.6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 2+ pts
Last price
94.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gooden, 5+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 91.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 5+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.9¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Gooden, 8+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 8+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Gooden, 11+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 11+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Gooden, 14+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 14+ pts
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Kalshi
Gooden, 17+ pts
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 17+ pts
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gooden, 20+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 20+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 0-5%
17.1%
Polymarket 17.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $505 (5.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
17.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.8¢
Sell Yes
14.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$505 (5.05x)
Volume
$715
Trade this on Polymarket
Gooden, 23+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 23+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Gooden, 26+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 26+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Gooden, 29+ pts
4.2%
Kalshi 4.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gooden, 29+ pts
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$566
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gooden, 2+ pts
  • Gooden, 5+ pts
  • Gooden, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Gooden, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 5th District margin of victory". Gooden, 2+ pts leads at 94.6%. Next is Gooden, 5+ pts at 86%. $18K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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