The Prediction Markets

Texas's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Fletcher, 27+ pts 98.7%

Next is Fletcher, 39+ pts at 98.4%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fletcher, 27+ pts
98.7%
Kalshi 98.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fletcher, 27+ pts
Last price
98.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Kalshi
Fletcher, 39+ pts
98.4%
Kalshi 98.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fletcher, 39+ pts
Last price
98.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Fletcher, 33+ pts
95.1%
Kalshi 95.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fletcher, 33+ pts
Last price
95.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Fletcher, 24+ pts
94.4%
Kalshi 94.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fletcher, 24+ pts
Last price
94.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Fletcher, 30+ pts
92.6%
Kalshi 92.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fletcher, 30+ pts
Last price
92.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Kalshi
Fletcher, 21+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fletcher, 21+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
83%
Polymarket 83%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
66.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fletcher, 45+ pts
49.4%
Kalshi 49.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fletcher, 45+ pts
Last price
49.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fletcher, 36+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fletcher, 36+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Fletcher, 42+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fletcher, 42+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 35-40%
10.4%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
10.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$485 (4.85x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$775
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$885
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-20%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-20%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fletcher, 27+ pts
  • Fletcher, 39+ pts
  • Fletcher, 33+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Fletcher, 27+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 7th District margin of victory". Fletcher, 27+ pts leads at 98.7%. Next is Fletcher, 39+ pts at 98.4%. $35K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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