The Prediction Markets

Texas's 8th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Steinmann, 9+ pts 90%

Next is Steinmann, 12+ pts at 84%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Steinmann, 9+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steinmann, 9+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Steinmann, 12+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steinmann, 12+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Steinmann, 15+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steinmann, 15+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Steinmann, 18+ pts
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steinmann, 18+ pts
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Steinmann, 21+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steinmann, 21+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Steinmann, 24+ pts
39.5%
Kalshi 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steinmann, 24+ pts
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Steinmann, 27+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steinmann, 27+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 10-15%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steinmann, 30+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steinmann, 30+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Steinmann, 33+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steinmann, 33+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
11.3%
Polymarket 11.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
11.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$672
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$998
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Steinmann, 9+ pts
  • Steinmann, 12+ pts
  • Steinmann, 15+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Steinmann, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas's 8th District margin of victory". Steinmann, 9+ pts leads at 90%. Next is Steinmann, 12+ pts at 84%. $12K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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