The Prediction Markets

The Cheesecake Factory comparable restaurant sales in Q3

Closes
Feb 24, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$233K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.5% 99%

Next is Above 4.5% at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.5%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.5%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.5%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.5%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.5%
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.5%
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Above 8%
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8%
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.5%
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.5%
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10%
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10%
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.5%
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.5%
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.5%
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.5%
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12%
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.5%
  • Above 4.5%
  • Above 4%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "The Cheesecake Factory comparable restaurant sales in Q3". Above 3.5% leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.5% at 99%. $233K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 24, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets