The Prediction Markets

The Game Awards: Best Narrative

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Grand Theft Auto VI 50.2%

Next is The Blood of Dawnwalker at 9.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Grand Theft Auto VI 50.2%The Blood of Dawnwalker 9.5%007 First Light 7.8%Silent Hill: Townfall 6.9%Resident Evil Requiem 3.3%17 others 22.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Grand Theft Auto VI
50.2%
Polymarket 58%(50.2% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Grand Theft Auto VI
Last price
58%
Fair, margin removed
50.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Blood of Dawnwalker
9.5%
Polymarket 11%(9.5% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 18.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $532 (5.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Blood of Dawnwalker
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$532 (5.32x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
007 First Light
7.8%
Polymarket 9%(7.8% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
007 First Light
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Silent Hill: Townfall
6.9%
Polymarket 8%(6.9% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Silent Hill: Townfall
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$719 (7.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Resident Evil Requiem
3.3%
Polymarket 3.8%(3.3% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Resident Evil Requiem
Last price
3.8%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Polymarket
Mixtape
3.1%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mixtape
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Polymarket
Schrödinger's Call
2.4%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Schrödinger's Call
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket
Control Resonant
2.1%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Control Resonant
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Polymarket
Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave
2.1%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket
Marvel's Wolverine
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marvel's Wolverine
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Onimusha: Way of the Sword
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Onimusha: Way of the Sword
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket
Titanium Court
1.2%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Titanium Court
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Polymarket
Phonopolis
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phonopolis
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Polymarket
Pragmata
1.1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pragmata
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Polymarket
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy
1.1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Polymarket
Life Is Strange: Reunion
1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Life Is Strange: Reunion
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
The Sinking City 2
1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Sinking City 2
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mouse: P.I. For Hire
0.9%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mouse: P.I. For Hire
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Polymarket
OPUS: Prism Peak
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
OPUS: Prism Peak
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket
Esoteric Ebb
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Esoteric Ebb
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Wax Heads
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wax Heads
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$166
Trade this on Polymarket
Reanimal
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reanimal
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: thegameawards.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Grand Theft Auto VI
  • The Blood of Dawnwalker
  • 007 First Light

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "The Game Awards: Best Narrative". Grand Theft Auto VI leads at 50.2%. Next is The Blood of Dawnwalker at 9.5%. $35K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

The Game Awards are presented annually to honor achievements in the video game industry. The 2026 Game Awards are currently scheduled to be presented on December 10, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video game that wins the 2026 Game Award for Best Narrative. If a game is not officially nominated for the 2026 Game Award for Best Narrative when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from The Game Awards, including data from their website (e.g., https://thegameawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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