The Prediction Markets

The Weeknd: Highest daily view count (October 2026)

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$45K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 19M 99%

Next is Above 20M at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 19M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21M
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21M
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$752
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 24M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 24M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23M
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23M
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 22M
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 22M
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25M
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25M
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
25M
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
25M
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
24M
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
24M
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
26M
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
26M
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
27M
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
27M
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: charts.youtube.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 19M
  • Above 20M
  • Above 21M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 19M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "The Weeknd: Highest daily view count (October 2026)". Above 19M leads at 99%. Next is Above 20M at 99%. $45K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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