The Prediction Markets

TheMongolz vs. Aurora Gaming

Starts in 28 hKickoff
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Aurora Gaming 71.6%

Next is Map 2 Winner at 69%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Aurora Gaming
71.6%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 37s agoKalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Match Winner
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aurora Gaming
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 71¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 72¢.

Map 2 Winner
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Winner
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 1 Winner
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Winner
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$664
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Games
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Games
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
TheMongolz
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
TheMongolz
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$921
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitch.tv
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: B03, HLTV, Gamers World
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Aurora Gaming
  • Map 2 Winner
  • Map 1 Winner

Live prices for Aurora Gaming

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "TheMongolz vs. Aurora Gaming". Aurora Gaming leads at 71.6%. Next is Map 2 Winner at 69%. $13K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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