The Prediction Markets

Third-best AI Agent Lab end of December?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Google 25.4%

Next is Meta at 18.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Google 25.4%Meta 18.9%OpenAI 15.8%SpaceXAI 10%Moonshot 5%14 others 24.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Google
25.4%
Polymarket 33%(25.4% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
25.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
18.9%
Polymarket 24.6%(18.9% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 26.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $382 (3.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
24.6%
Fair, margin removed
18.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26.2¢
Sell Yes
22.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$382 (3.82x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
OpenAI
15.8%
Polymarket 20.5%(15.8% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceXAI
10%
Polymarket 13%(10% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceXAI
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moonshot
5%
Polymarket 6.5%(5% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$563
Trade this on Polymarket
Baidu
4.6%
Polymarket 6%(4.6% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
4.6%
Polymarket 6.1%(4.7% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
6.1%
Fair, margin removed
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
2.8%
Polymarket 3.6%(2.8% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
3.6%
Fair, margin removed
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
2.6%
Polymarket 3.4%(2.6% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
3.4%
Fair, margin removed
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
2.5%
Polymarket 3.2%(2.5% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
3.2%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Alibaba
2.1%
Polymarket 2.8%(2.1% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
2.8%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
DeepSeek
2%
Polymarket 2.7%(2% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
2.7%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$308
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
1.4%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$681
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.6%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
ByteDance
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
Microsoft
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Polymarket
Mistral
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Polymarket
Amazon
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Google
  • Meta
  • OpenAI

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Third-best AI Agent Lab end of December?". Google leads at 25.4%. Next is Meta at 18.9%. $15K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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