The Prediction Markets

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of December?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Moonshot 27.2%

Next is Z.ai at 17.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Moonshot 27.2%Z.ai 17.8%Xiaomi 14.4%Alibaba 12.4%DeepSeek 8.1%6 others 20.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Moonshot
27.2%
Polymarket 33%(27.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
27.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
17.8%
Polymarket 21.5%(17.7% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$820
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
14.4%
Polymarket 17.5%(14.4% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
17.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$525
Trade this on Polymarket
Alibaba
12.4%
Polymarket 15%(12.4% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
12.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Polymarket
DeepSeek
8.1%
Polymarket 9.8%(8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
9.8%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
7.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
5.2%
Polymarket 6.4%(5.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
6.4%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$319
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
4.6%
Polymarket 5.6%(4.6% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
5.6%
Fair, margin removed
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Baidu
4.5%
Polymarket 5.5%(4.5% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
2.9%
Polymarket 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Polymarket
StepFun
2.3%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
StepFun
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Polymarket
ByteDance
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Moonshot
  • Z.ai
  • Xiaomi

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of December?". Moonshot leads at 27.2%. Next is Z.ai at 17.8%. $5K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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