The Prediction Markets

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Meta 18.9%

Next is Moonshot at 16.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Meta 18.9%Moonshot 16.6%Google 13.3%Anthropic 12.8%DeepSeek 11.4%16 others 27%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Meta
18.9%
Polymarket 17%(18.9% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
18.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moonshot
16.6%
Polymarket 14.9%(16.6% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 16.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $610 (6.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
14.9%
Fair, margin removed
16.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.4¢
Sell Yes
13.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$610 (6.10x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
13.3%
Polymarket 12%(13.3% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
13.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
12.8%
Polymarket 11.5%(12.8% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
12.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
DeepSeek
11.4%
Polymarket 10.3%(11.5% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
10.3%
Fair, margin removed
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$914
Trade this on Polymarket
Alibaba
8.9%
Polymarket 8%(8.9% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
OpenAI
5.2%
Polymarket 4.7%(5.2% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
4.7%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$656
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
5%
Polymarket 4.5%(5% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bytedance
1.7%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bytedance
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceXAI
1.5%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceXAI
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Thinky
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thinky
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Polymarket
Amazon
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Polymarket
Microsoft
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
StepFun
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
StepFun
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
Baidu
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Polymarket
Mistral
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$370
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Meta
  • Moonshot
  • Google

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?". Meta leads at 18.9%. Next is Moonshot at 16.6%. $23K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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